2nd Annual PK Predicts the 53

Training camp kicks off on the 26th. That means a fresh new season is upon us. I’ll be honest with you. I am having a hard time deciding which I’m more excited about. The start to this season, or the start of my defense of my Fantasy championship from last year. It’s probably the Bills season, but I think it’s close ATM. Part of that might be due to how the previous seasons have ended after being on such a high. The other part is because I was able to finish the job and all eyes are on me this year.

But in all seriousness. I did this prediction article last year and went 48/53. Maybe should be 49/53 because I said Benford will make it if Tre White went to PUP which ended up happening. To me, that’s not good enough. Even pre training camp. I expect 50 or above in my predictions otherwise what’s the point? Now there will be injuries. There will be guys that go down and start on the PUP list or get placed on the IR and are just done for the year. There may be even new bodies brought into camp But with how the roster stands today is how I will be predicting it. I am going to break it down like I did last year by positions, so those that read that article, this will look similar in breakdown.

So without any further stalling, away we go….

Quarterbacks (2)

Keep – Josh Allen, Kyle Allen

Cut – Matt Barkley

Similar to last year, this room is pretty cut and dry. Josh Allen is a top 3 QB in the league and will be a major reason why the Bills have success this season. Kyle Allen, who just happens to be buddies with Josh, replaces the departed Case Keenum as the backup. 4th straight year of a new back up to J. Allen. I am not the biggest Kyle Allen fan, but in reality, if you need to rely on him for any major parts of the season, your chances are gone anyways so he will be good enough. Barkley will find a spot on the practice squad again and have a key role in that QB Room all year long.

Running Backs (4)

Keep – James Cook, Nyheim Hines, Damien Harris, Reggie Gilliam

Cut – Latavius Murray, Jordan Mims

This room might have the biggest change over out of them all except maybe WR. Gone are Singletary, Moss and even Taiwan Jones. In are Hines and Harris. Cook I expect to have a monster year. I loved him in his limited time last year and felt he was catching fire towards the end of the season. I think he’s your between the 20s guy. Hines adds so much in the return game that even if his role in the running game is limited once again (Hoping not), he adds enough value to the team in that way. Harris I believe is your better version of what you had hoped you’d get from Zack Moss. He will also take some of the goal line work away from Allen. Gilliam will once again fill that dual role of FB and TE but also a major factor on special teams with some of your core gone there. Murray I believe will have the role of Duke Johnson. Practice squad body that you can call up in a pinch and not lose a beat.

Wide Receivers (6)

Keep – Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, Justin Shorter

Cut - Isaiah Coulter, Dezman Patmon, Keesean Johnson, Jalen Wayne, Tyrell Shavers, Bryan Thompson, Marcell Ateman

Last year they kept 7 guys on the roster in their initial 53. Of those 7, 3 return. Can add in John Brown and Cole Beasley as well and you are looking at 3 of 9 returning to the WR room. That’s a massive change over and one I think we all expected to see after last season. Diggs is a clear and obvious lock. Even with the issues we saw and still don’t understand at OTAs, he is a top 5/7 WR in this league. Davis is entering a contract year. A lot of times that means you expect to see the player take a bigger step forward to earn a big 2nd contract. I don’t dislike Davis. I just think he is a perfect #3 on a team rather than a #2 the Bills have been hoping for last year and now into this year. Shakir is the last remaining hold over. He didn’t get much run last year, but with spots opening up, will he be able to grasp a bigger role? I said it last year and I think I need to echo it a bit more. Fans should temper expectations. Harty and Sherfield were offseason signings and I love them both as they both add something different. Harty is that elusive speedster that also has good hands. If Dorsey can get more creative, he could be in line for a surprising season ahead. Sherfield I believe will take some blocking responsibilities off Davis, but will also be more involved in the receiving game then a Kumerow from prior seasons. Lastly we have the next 5th round rookie in Shorter. His big body adds an element that isn’t in the room yet. I don’t expect much from him this year, but I don’t believe he makes it onto your Practice Squad if he doesn’t make the team so he is on my first 53.

Tight Ends (3)

Keep – Dawson Knox, Dalton Kinkaid, Quintin Morris

Cut - Nick Guggemos, Joel Wilson

Knox and Kinkaid are locks. I don’t think there’s anyone on the planet that doesn’t have them on their 53. Knox just signed an extension last offseason and Kinkaid was your 1st rounder this year. Excited to see how they use them both this year. Now the question is do they keep 3 like they did last year, or do they role with 2 and send Morris to PS. I am in the fan camp of Morris. I thought he was very good in the limited work he was given last year. Plus if they go more 2 TE sets this year, they need a backup for both of the starters. I could see them rolling with 2 to start the season and keeping an extra DE if Miller is out, but if you believe he is out there, Morris is in my 53.

Offensive Line (9)

Keep – Ryan Bates, Connor McGovern, David Edwards, O’Cyrus Torrence, Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, David Quessenberry, Brandon Shell, Mitch Morris

Cut – Nick Broeker, Ike Boettger, Kevin Jarvis, Greg Mancz, Tommy Doyle, Alec Anderson, Ryan Van Demark, Richard Gouraige

I have said it on the show many times. I am not anywhere near an expert at the OLine. On top of that I think 1 maybe 2 spots could be had this training camp. Left tackle is set with Dawkins. LG I believe belongs to McGovern. Loved that signing to fill a massive hole they have had. Center belongs to Morse once again. Now comes the fun. I believe RG will end up going to Bates. But I could also see Edwards or Torrence grabbing it and pushing Bates to super back up. Regardless I have all 3 of the players making the team. As for the right tackle spot. IMO its Browns to lose. He struggled in his sophomore year but he also had limited time in the offseason due to recovering from an injury. I have Quessenberry making the team but if Brown isn’t the answer I lean Shell. In the end I think there is one true battle for making the 53. Its Quessenberry vs Shell vs Doyle with 2 of them making it. Team would save nearly 900k by cutting Doyle while its 600k for Quessenberry and just 50K for Edwards. Money isn’t everything but with the team near the cap, any small amounts helps Beane.

Defensive Line (10)

Keep – Von Miller, Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Leonard Floyd, Shaq Lawson, Ed Oliver, DeQuan Jones, Jordan Phillips, Poona Ford, Tim Settle

Cut – Boogie Basham, Kendall Vickers, Eli Ankou, Kingsley Jonathan, Cortez Broughton, Kameron Cline, DJ Dale

Ah, the defensive line. 4 early round draftees from Beane. That’s what makes this position so frustrating. The draft capital has been invested in the spots. But the level of play has not followed. Beyond just that comes the health of your best Edge man in Miller. I believe he will be back week 1, but I don’t think you see a true Von Miller until closer to November. Because of that I think that opens a spot on the line that kept 9 total last year. Miller, Rousseau and Floyd are easy locks and should see the bulk of the time rushing the passer this year. That trio should scare plenty of QBs. Lawson played very well last year and earned himself another 1 year deal this offseason to return. He isn’t the 1st rounder he was drafted to be but he’s a very good rotational piece. In the end for the ends it comes down to Epenesa or Basham. I lean Epenesa as he has just had more moments of flash then Basham has. But I could truly see it reversed or even both making the team is Miller starts the season out.

As for the DTs. Oliver and his new extension is locked. Jones was desperately missed in Cincy and he’s a lock. Poona Ford was brought in not just to solidify that middle and probably rotate with Jones and also carries a decent cap number. Phillips I think will rotate well with Oliver. Those 4 I have locked in as your 4 main DTs. I really only wanted to keep 9 on the line here. 5 edges and 4 DTs. But Tim Settle and his contract made it so he will be on the team. He would actually cost the team nearly a million more to be released then to be kept. For that reason I have him making it but he’s a 15-20% snap player if not a healthy scratch each week. The only other sneaky guy to watch in camp is Kingsley Jonathan. I think he is destined for the PS, but he could flash in camp and force a Beane trade.

Linebackers (5)

Keep – Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Tyler Matakevich, Dorian Williams, Tyrell Dodson

Cut – Baylon Spector, AJ Klien, Travin Howard, Shane Ray

What was a for sure position for so many years now has one of if not the biggest question mark on the team. Who replaces Tremaine Edmunds after he got the bag in Chicago? Matt Milano is an all pro and a no doubter. Bernard was drafted in the 3rd last year and I believe the team has higher hopes for him moving forward. Dorian Williams this year’s 3rd rounder will be on the team. Matakevich is a key ST Player and like Settle would cost the team more to be cut then kept. It’s a 4 horse race for that final spot. Dodson, Spector, Klien and Ray. But to me it’s really down to 2 guys. Dodson vs Klien. Klien is peanuts on the cap while Dodson is costing the team 2.01 mill whether he’s here or not. Dodson will be entering year 4 for this team. I believe they see something more in him than a special team’s guy. Klien is the savvy vet that can go in and the defense wouldn’t miss a beat. But to fill Edmunds shoes I think they want more upside and speed so I believe they will lean Dodson. Which means it’s a Bernard v Williams v Dodson training camp to see who starts opposite Milano.

Cornerbacks (6)

Keep – Tre White, Kaiir Elam, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Cam Lewis, Dane Jackson

Cut – Cameron Dantzler, Alex Austin, Ja’Marcus Ingram

This position was less of who makes it but how many. Last year they kept 6 and also placed Tre on PUP. This year going into camp everyone is healthy. I still lean 6 because Benford showed he can play CB or S. Tre is clearly locked into CB1. I believe Elam will grab CB2 in camp based on what we saw in the 2nd half of the season last year. Johnson is one of the best slot corners in the league. Those are your top 3. Benford I believe is your next man up and will see the field in 4 WR sets. While I am not his biggest fan, the team loves him and his 2.01 price tag so Jackson is back. The final spot will come down to Lewis vs the rookie Austin. I lean Lewis due to experience and I expect to see Austin on PS all season long.

Safeties (5)

Keep – Siran Neal, Demar Hamlin, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Taylor Rapp

Cut – Jared Mayden, Zayne Anderson, Dean Marlowe

You may look at this spot and scratch your head on why I keep 5 here. In all the time Beane and McDermott have been here I’m not sure I have seen 5 safeties kept. I think you need to take a bigger look at the overall makeup of the defense. Poyer and Hyde should be back fully healthy and leading the DBs and never coming off the field. Neal is that big bodied safety and a core ST player. Hamlin filled in great when Hyde went down so as long as he’s healthy and can go, he has earned a spot on the team as the back up to those guys. Newly signed Rapp was a big signing this offseason and shocked he came here on a 1 year deal. Those are my 5 no question. Now why 5? I believe you will see more 3 safety sets this year with Poyer or Rapp coming down more often. With no Edmunds and a big Q at who will replace him along with how much speed is in the NFL now, I could see the defense going more speed heavy then anything. Plus you look at how banged up the position got last year. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if you see 5 kept here.

Special Teams (3)

Keep – Sam Martin, Tyler Bass, Reid Ferguson

Not much to say here. Zero competition. Martin resigned after a solid year. Bass just got the nice extension that will keep him around for years to come. And Reid is one of the best in the game. The core had a great season last year and for the 1st time in a while you’ll see the same 3 back which should just help grow their chemistry together.