Can These Sabres Break the Drought? Part 2

Everyone have some fun going over the past 10 years? No? Yeah, me either. Let’s dive into why I wanted to write this article in the first place. The 2021/2022 Buffalo Sabres. Phil and I spoke at great lengths in the offseason and the lead up to the start of the season in October when we knew this team wasn’t ready. We knew this team had a ways to go. We saw what happened when Don Granato took over towards the end of last year and there was this small glimmer of hope. He led the team to a 9-16-3 record the final 28 games. What he has been able to do with this team this year to me is pretty special. The way he speaks in radio interviews, talks to the press before and after games, the locker room speeches your hear show that this guy knows how to get the best out of his players. He builds his system around the guys in the room, he doesn’t try to build his players into a system. I truly believe this team has turned a corner and I think he is the main guy that is pulling the strings behind the curtain and not getting the credit he deserves.

But let’s talk about the players he helped turn around after they were left for dead by the previous coach. Mittelstadt went 9/5/14 after Granato took over. Under the previous coach with 44 games played he was 5/12/17. Tage Thompson. Heard about that guy? The big, tall, young forward we got in the ROR deal? Yeah, he’s your #1 center man now. If you told me the guy that got 1 game in the NHL in the 2019/2020 season would be this team’s top line center, I’d ask what you were on and if you had any left. Since Granato became coach, TT has played in 89 games with 35/28/63. How about the guy that might have had the biggest turn around not just in the stats? Not just from healthy scratches to the top line, but also from the lack of joy to the best smile on the team. Jeff Skinner! In 84 games under Krueger he went 16/10/26. This is the guy that scored 40 goals and had 63 points the year prior. Since then you might ask? 94 games, 32/26/58. The last guy I dove more into was a former #1 overall pick. Rasmus Dahlin has taken the biggest step forward in growth out of everyone on the team this year. Even in the early parts of this year we were watching the games and going, this isn’t the guy he was made out to be. Then something flipped. The guy got a massive boost in confidence and is doing things on the ice that my simple brain cannot even comprehend. 87 Games under the previous guidance going 5/46/51. Under this leadership group he’s played in 94 games, scoring 13 goals and had 42 assists for 55 points.

Those are just the 4 guys that seem to have had the biggest turn around with the change to Granato as HC. But there are other key pieces here with this team right now that are part of the reason I have hope moving forward. Dylan Cozens is turning out to be that perfect 2-way center. He’s got 33 points on the year so far, but the role they are asking him to play goes beyond the points. The Jack Eichel trade brought in 2 guys I was excited to see. Peyton Krebs is a young 21 year old kid who I envision putting up 50-60 assists a year in the next couple seasons. His vision is some of the best I’ve ever seen. Alex Tuch has come in here and lifted not just the effort and place in the standings, but he has brought confidence and joy back to a team and a franchise that hasn’t seen it in years. Before Tuch came along I was seeing Dylan Cozens as the next captain of this team but it’s not a shock to anyone at this point that Tuch should and likely will be the next captain of these Buffalo Sabres. Toss in guys like Rasmus Asplund who is the next coming of Johan Larsson and this young group of forwards that are up in the bigs are your core.

On the back end you have the emergence of Mattias Samuelsson. His big 6’4” frame is a towering presence on the ice and he does all those things that I have been looking for in a defenseman for years. He blocks shots, throws his body around and he’s always in the right spot in his own end. Casey Fitzgerald is not a big guy being 5’11” but man does he play like he’s 7 feet. The guy has never backed down from a challenge and I think he’s a great 3rd pairing defenseman with Samuelsson moving forward.

Now let’s talk about those players in Roch for a minute. Jack Quinn is having himself a year and come next season we should never see him in an Amerks jersey ever again. In 32 games this year he’s went 23/25/48. This guys is ready to make the jump whenever the team decides to bring him up. JJ Peterka is up over 50 points this year in his 57 games played. Brandin Biro got a brief look up here but he has 36 points in 40 games. Oskari Laaksonen took over the top pair defensive minutes now that Samuelsson, Bryson, and Fitzgerald have all graduated. The former 3rd round selection has played in 86 games with Rochester the last 2 years and has 47 points to his name in that span. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has had a bit of an up and down season in the AHL. He’s went 11-11-4 with a 3.45 GAA and a .896 SV%. He has always been better in the pros than the minors but the other factor is his health and his ability to stay in the lineup. Rochester is looking to make the playoffs and I think getting these guys a taste of playoff hockey can only benefit them and the team as they progress in their careers.

Now how about those players that are not yet playing with the team? Top guy on everyone’s list has to be Owen Power. Last year’s #1 overall pick. Playing in his 2nd year at Michigan and looking for that national championship he went back to school for 32 games with the Wolverines. He has 3 goals and 29 assists and is playing at a point per game pace. The man between the pipes saving any of Power’s slip ups is Erik Portillo. This mountain of a man in net stands 6’6” and is playing at an MVP clip after taking over the starting job this year. 41 games in he has a 2.13 GAA and a .926 SV%. Another guy looking for a title is Ryan Johnson who we got with the pick in the O’Reilly deal. This smooth skating junior out of the University of Minnesota is having his best season yet. He has 19 points in 38 games this season and is in the semifinals of the NCAA championship. The forgotten 1st rounder from this past year’s draft is Isak Rosen. Still just 19, the strong skating forward has a great IQ for the game. He still has a ways to go to develop into what the Sabres hope he can be but the skills are all there. There are a lot more names I can toss out there like the 2 Russian prospects Prokhor Poltapov and Alex Kisakov and Josh Bloom and Lukas Rousek. The last name I want to mention is a guy who was not just robbed of the Hobey Baker award but robbed of any chance to play in any Olympic games for team Canada. He was acquired in the Sam Reinhart deal. Thank you Sammy for one last goodbye gift you gave the team. I do not know how he fell to the 7th round after the year he just had at Northwestern. In 32 games he has a 1.54 GAA and a .952 SV%. Think about that for a minute. One of the greatest goalie seasons in the history of the NCAA and he isn’t even an award finalist.

I realize we have seen this before, a promise of young guys in the system. We have been let down by this exact thing in years past so I fully understand the hesitation. Part of me wishes I could join that group but it just feels different this time. I don’t know if it’s because of how much fun they have been to watch this last month or the thought of Power and Dahlin as your top 2 lefty DMen or maybe it’s just because of this podcast that has me watching each game so closely but this team just has a different feel to it than the last 10 teams have had. So, before I close this out, I figured I’d try one last thing. The last 10 years have been what a lot of people will call one of the lowest points in this team’s history. During that time, I would always love looking at possible line pairings for the following year. So why not toss out my first one for the 2022/2023 season in this super long article?

I’ll give you a few quick thoughts behind my pairings. Top line I believe is set. They are such a strong 3 and are growing together. Remember this is Thompson’s first full year at C so he should continue to get better and better. Second line is dependent on Mittelstadt finishing the year strong and taking that needed next step next year. I shipped out Olofsson for a 2nd and a 4th as he is an RFA and is likely going to be getting more than I want to pay a guy that has talent but not what I’d be looking for in my top 6. I signed Bryan Rust to a 4 year deal. Sabres are going to need to spend money to reach the cap floor. A guy like Rust who will be 30 and has 3 straight 2 goal seasons under his belt would be a perfect addition to the top 6. He can play the PP and the PK. Jack Quinn with his play in Roch has earned a spot on this team and I’m pairing him with Cozens and Asplud will protect him on that 3rd line. I also resigned Hinostroza and Hayden to new 1-year deals.

Moving to the defense, the top pairing of Dahlin and Joki I think is the one to stay along with the Sameulsson and Fitzgerald pairing. Bringing in Owen Power instantly gives your team a nice boost and having him play 2nd fiddle to Dahlin will help bring him in slower to the league and not have to log those 23-25 minute nights right away. Finding him a partner was the biggest thing for me. For this one I went looking in the trade market and I landed on former 1st round pick and current Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun. It’s a tall ask but he’s under contract and cost controlled for 3 more years after this at just $4.6M. I believe he could be good for one of your 3 1st this year, one of your 3 2nds next year (remember got another 2nd in my Olofsson deal) and Matej Pekar. That would lock up your top 6 defenseman for years to come. If that deal doesn’t work, you can always bring back a Mark Pysyk type player until you find that right fit. But I prefer my trade idea.

Now for the difficult task of assigning the net. If the Sabres had Anderson in net all year long you really wonder where this team would currently be in the standings. I don’t mind bringing him back for one more year. The tough part is you want to have someone in the pipes that can give this team a real chance to win every night but you don’t want to invest long term there with UPL, Levi and Portillo on the way. Going in with UPL and Anderson I believe gives you the best chance without breaking the bank. If you did want to invest some more money and have a bridge as you wait for the 2 college kids, a name I like is Braden Holtby from Dallas. He will be an UFA and looking for a new home more than likely. He’s 32 so you won’t need to invest a ton of money into the position but if Anderson retires, Holtby on a 2-year deal for $4.5M might be the way to go to bridge you until Levi or Portillo is ready.

So, to wrap this thing up, YES, I think this Sabres core is the one that will break the drought. All of the makings and pieces are there but they do need to bring in a few other outside pieces to reinforce what they already have. You have the draft picks, you have the farm system, you have the young guys preforming here on the big league club, you have the next wave of young players joining at the end of this year or to start next year and you have the coach that is producing results with the current team on the ice. Now I think it’s up to GM Kevyn Adams to add those couple outside pieces without unloading the future like GM TM did. I believe building within and trading/signing players can both be achieved without hurting the present and the future. It’s just adding in the right final pieces that will get this team over the hump and into meaningful games in March and April.