NLL Playoffs Round 1
#8 Rochester Knighthawks (8-10) v #1 Toronto Rock (15-3)
It’s the 1/8 matchup no one expected to see. Rochester came into the final week having just 4 of a possible 128 outcomes that saw them getting into the playoffs. Or around 3%. That did not stop them as they won both of their weekend games and got the help they needed to sneak in as the #8 seed. They get the wonderful pleasure of going up against the #1 team in the league this year, the Toronto Rock. The Rock have had their playoffs clinched for a few weeks now after losing just 3 games all year long and sealing that top seed throughout.
Rochester is led up top by the likes of Connor Fields (56/64/120) who finished 4th in the league in scoring and 2nd in goals. Ryan Smith (46/53/99) who finished 13th in the league. And Ryan Lanchbury (20/66/86) who finished tied for 23rd. As a whole they finished 5th in the league in scoring at 11.89 a game. Toronto on the other hand had newcomer Mark Matthews (31/67/98) lead their charge finishing tied for 14th in scoring. Tom Schreiber (21/55/76) finished tied for 34th after missing the first 5 games of the year and Corey Small (38/36/74) who was 36th for the team that finished 3rd in the league in scoring at 12.11.
As for the defensive side of the ball. This is where there is a massive difference. The Rock are coming in first in the league in goals allowed per game at 9.39. The Rock had 3 players in the top 11 in CTO in Mitch de Snoo (38 CTO), Brad Kri (36 CTO) and Billy Hostrawser (25 CTO). de Snoo (164 LB) and Kri (132 LB) were inside the top 15 in Loose Balls this year along with TD Irelan (154 LBs). As for Rochester, Matt Gilray (25 CTO). He finished tied for 11th in caused turnovers on the year all while finishing 4th in the league in Loose balls with 174 with Fields (158 LBs) and Joe Post (152 LB) were also inside the top 11. The team as a whole though finished tied for 12th in the league in GAA siting at 12.56.
In net you have the young Rylan Hartley who has battled his way back from another nasty concussion. He only played 203 minutes on the year and went 2-1 with a 9.71 GA and a 78Sv%. On the other end between the pipes is the favorite to win his first Goalie of the Year title and is in talks for MVP Finalist, Nick Rose. He finished the year 15-2 with an insane 9.18 GAA and an 81sv%. Both league leading.
Prediction: Toronto 13 – Rochester 10
Rochester had a great story to finish the year. Going form 3% chance to the final spot. But Toronto has been a machine this year. It’s hard to envision a team who had this type of year going out in round 1 vs a team with a losing record. Give me Toronto to advance to the Semis.
#7 Panther City Lacrosse Club (9-9) v #2 San Diego Seals (13-5)
Panther City had a chance to finish anywhere from the 3rd seed to out of the playoffs in that finial week for the regular season. But thanks to the team they are facing this week winning over Vancouver, they clinched a spot even though they lost and fell to a record of 9-9. They are going up against a team that has had plenty of regular season success but that has not translated to playoff success with back to back years of round 1 exits.
PC was a team I knocked down in my preseason playoff predictions because I felt their goal scoring was not strong enough. And that has been an issue all year long. They finished the year in 9th with an 11.39 goal average. Will Malcolm 37/68/105) bounced back from a slower start to finish tied for 7th in the league in scoring. Callum Crawford (42/51/93) was right behind him in 18th even after missing 2 games during the year. You then have to slide down to 30th where you’ll find Jonathan Donville (27/52/79) who finished 3rd on the team this year. As for the Seals. The star power they have its strange to see them sitting in 6th with an 11.67 average. Wes Berg (41/67/108) and Austin Staats (50/52/102) were both 2 of 12 players to finish over the 100 point make this year. Then is the likes of Dane Dobbie (24/46/70) and Curtis Dickson (27/37/64) who finished 3rd and 4th on their team. But a 16 goal finish to the season including getting Dickson back into the lineup should help their luck getting out of round 1 this year.
Now we look towards the defense as Panther City relied on Matt Hossack (25 CTO) to get the bulk of the CTO on the year as no one else was within 10 of his total. In fact Hossack (103 LB) was the only player on his team to even eclipse 100 loose balls on the year. All these numbers and the team still finished with an 11.22 GAA which was good for 7th in the league. Flip to the Seals who CTO were about the same story as PC. Kyle Rubisch (29 CTO) in his first season with the club finished 7th in the league with the next closest 13 behind him on his own team. But it’s the loose balls that tell another story. Trevor Baptiste (177 LB) and Kyle Rubisch (125 LB) both finished in the top 19 of the league. While the numbers tell one part of the story here, it’s the 9.89 GAA that tells the whole as they were 2nd in the league in allowing goals.
In net you have 2 young up and coming studs. Nick Damude who was Phil’s preseason pick to win goalie of the year played like a franchise leader between the pipes. He finished 9-7 with an 11.04 GAA and an 80sv% which only 4 total goalies finished the season with. On the other end is Chris Origlieri who will have his name as a Goalie of the Year finalist I’m sure. I came into the year thinking the Seals only weaker spot was in net and man was I proven wrong. He finished with a 13-5 record and a 9.79GAA paired with a 79sv%. Incredible for his first full year as the top goalie in net.
Prediction: San Diego 12 – Panther City 8
I love some of the pieces PC has to build with. And Damude has top 5 goalie written all over him. But I believe this is finally the year the Seals get over that Round 1 hump. Seeing how different that offense looks with Dickson back involved and with the play of Origlieri, I’m going chalk again.
#6 Halifax Thunderbirds (10-8) v #3 Albany Firewolves (11-7)
If you had told me in the start of the season that the Albany Firewolves would be hosting a playoff game I would have called you insane. But that’s exactly where we are after their 16-10 win over NY on Saturday to seal the #3 seed. And it was a big game for them to get ready for the playoffs after losing 5 straight before the win. Halifax on the other hand I had making it but to host a playoff game. But after going 10-8 on the year going 4-5 in the 2nd half of the year, they come into the playoffs looking for a round 1 win that has evaded them due to the Rock the last 2 playoffs.
Albany on offense has been a team to study. Not just because a young bunch led by a couple rookies were able to be a top 3 seed, but also for future teams on how quickly a rebuild can go when done correctly. The team finished tied for 7th in GF on the year with an 11.45 average. They were led by Rookie of the Year favorite Alex Simmons (38/58/96) who finished 16th in the league in scoring and Tye Kurtz 32/46/78 who finished 32nd. Add in Ethan Walker (32/52/84) and you have a 3 headed monster that will be around for years to come. As for Halifax it’s the same names once again this year. Clarke Petterson (40/64/104) had a break out year finishing 10th in scoring while, Austin Staats (23/62/85), Ryan Benesch (42/39/81) and Cody Jamieson (22/41/63) round out the 4 in the top 50 for the league.
As we flip over to the defensive side of the ball, this is where I have been even more impressed with Albany’s play. They finished 3rd in the league in GAA at 10.61 with the likes of Joe Nardella (167 LB), Nick Chaykowsky (127 LB) and Patrick Kaschalk (113 LB) finishing inside the top 30 in Loose balls. And while they may not cause a bunch of TOs or block many shots, the team plays some swarming defense. Halifax on the other hand comes in 6th in the league in GAA with an 11.11. You already know the guys like Jake Withers (282 LB, 28 CTO), Ryan Terefenko (165 LB, 19CTO), and Graeme Hossack (119 LBs, 27 CTO) all of who are in the top 32 in both LBs and CTO. They have the name power that Albany does not.
As we look in the net, Albany is led by 2020 goalie of the year who is playing at or above that level this year in Dougie Jamieson. He finished 11-5 with a 10.12 GAA which is 3rd in the league and an 80sv% which is tied for 2nd. On the other end is the player a lot of people have said is the team’s weak spot on the team. But he hasn’t played that way this season. Warren Hill may sit 9-8 on the season but a 10.85 GAA which is 5th in the league and a 77sv%. I can’t put the thunderbirds being the #6 seed on Hill.
Prediction – Halifax 13 – Albany 11
Here is my upset. People have thought I have been down on Albany all year. But if you look back I had them very high in my ranks after the first few games when I saw this team show who they really were. But playoffs are a different animal and a lot of times players who have never experienced a playoff environment come up short. And in a 1 and done there’s no room for error. Halifax is a veteran savvy team that is looking to get over that hump and into the semis. I think they get it done and have a date with the Seals in round 2.
#5 Georgia Swarm (10-8) v #4 Buffalo Bandits (11-7)
Well after all the anticipation going into week 21, the only change for these 2 teams was who the host team is. After Georgia fell to Rochester on Friday night and Buffalo beat up on Vegas, they just simply flipped spots. Georgia comes in with a 10-8 record but winners in 4 of 6 games to close out the year. Buffalo once sitting 5-6 on the year went on a 6-1 record to close out the season 4 game winning streak.
Georgia’s offense has left a lot to be desired this season. They finished the season tied for 11th averaging 11 goals a game which is the fewest amongst the playoff teams. They are led by a 3 headed monster all separated by just 4 points. Lyle Thompson (42/45/87), Andrew Kew (36/51/87) and Shayne Jackson (30/53/83) all finished inside the top 28 in the league but all outside of the top 20. Buffalo on the other hand led the league in scoring with a 13.17 average which was a half a goal more than 2nd place. In fact the only time the Bandits failed to reach double digit goals was vs this team when they could only muster 8. But the offense is loaded with Josh Byrne (53/82/135) and Dhane Smith (33/101/134) finishing 1 and 2 in the league. And while Chris Cloutier (30/38/68) is there next leading scorer down at 42nd, guys like Chase Fraser (31/26/57) Kyle Buchanan (23/24/47) and Tehoka Nanticoke (27/16/43) have the important secondary scoring that comes with being a top offense.
On the defensive side of the ball. Georgia sits 5th in the league in GAA at 10.95. While they may not have anyone in the top 15 in LBs or CTO they can block shots with the best of them with Adam Wiedemann and John Ranagan finishing 7th in the league with 23 each. They also have guys like Bryan Cole (14/17/31) and Jordan MacIntosh (7/19/26) who ca be dangerous in the transition game. Buffalo on the other hand has had an up and down season defensively. They are 10th in the league in GAA at 11.78 but that number has actually come down with the defense getting much healthier. After going 8 weeks allowing 13 or more goals, they have now gone 6 straight weeks allowing 12 or less and the last 3 weeks allowing just 7.67 a game. They are led by the likes of Ian MacKay (160 LB, 19 CTO, 12 BS), Steve Priolo (120LB, 24 CTO, 24 BS), and Nick Weiss (113LB, 21 CTO, 12 BS) all in the top 40 in LBs, CTO and BS.
In net it the young gun Brett Dobson vs the best to ever do it in Matt Vinc. When you look at the number, they have been very similar to one another. Dobson went 10-7 with a 11.18 GAA and a 78sv% while Vinc went 11-5 with a 11.4 GAA and a 78sv%. They both are coming in playing some of their best lacrosse of the year as well. Dobson in his last 3 has a GAA of 9 while Vinc is sitting at 7.67.
Prediction – Buffalo 14 – Georgia 9
Some might see this score line and think it’s a homer take. Clearly haven’t listened or watched our content the last 3 years. While I feel this game will be close for the first 45 minutes Buffalo plays their best lacrosse in the 4th and that’s what the playoffs are all about. They average nearly 4 goals a game in the final quarter of games this year. Plus you can add in the revenge and defending your title narrative as well.